Impact of climate change using CRAFT: a case study for West Africa

The CGIAR research program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security Program’s (CCAFS) Regional Agricultural Forecasting Toolbox (CRAFT) is a framework for multi-scale spatial gridded simulations using an ensemble of crop models. The toolbox facilitates studies on the potential impact of climate change on crop production for a region in addition to other capabilities such as the regional in-season yield forecasting and risk assessment. CRAFT can be used to generate and conduct multiple simulation scenarios, maps, and interactive visualizations using a crop engine that can run the crop simulation models DSSAT, APSIM, and SARRA-H, in concert with the Climate Predictability Tool (CPT) for probabilistic seasonal climate forecasts

Strengthening Soil Databases for Climate Change and Food Security Modeling Applications

Climate change is a hazard to the food security of a growing world population since it affects agriculture and likewise, agriculture and natural resource management affect the climate system. The relationships between all these factors including polices, political conditions, economical management and pest and diseases, and how they interact are not currently well-understood, nor are the advantages and disadvantages of different responses to climate change. In the face of climate change it is important to integrate knowledge about it to generate realistic solutions for agriculture, and food security in a meaningful and innovative way. Research in this topic has focused on addressing the needs for methods, models, databases and system metrics aimed at enhanced assessment and improved methodologies for the impact of climate change on agricultural systems and the development of different policy and program interventions to foster adaptation and mitigation in terms of poverty alleviation, food security and environmental health. This work should be in a framework and set of modeling tools and databases to analyze the implications of human responses to the climate challenge in terms of regional food security and the preservation of important ecosystem services, upon which the long-term sustainability of global agriculture must be based

Effect of Water Price on the Multicrop Production Decision: Appling Fixed Allocatable Input Model in Georgia

This study applies the fixed allocatable input model to test the effect of water price on the multiple production decision in Georgia, U.S. The limited dependent variable models are applied and intensive data are analyzed in this study to estimate the decision for crop choice, land allocation, product supply, and water demand functions at crop-level. In order to investigate the effect of water price on crop-level demand, the total water price effect on farm water demand is decomposed the intensive margin and extensive margin.Resource /Energy Economics and Policy,

Spatial and Temporal On-Farm Risk Management - Crop Production Scheduling and Index Insurance Strategies

An agronomic crop growth model, Decision Support System for Agro-Technology Transfer (DSSAT), is used to find optimal crop management strategies for cotton production in Mitchell, Miller, and Lee Counties in Georgia during the past 10 years. Planting date and irrigation threshold are the two variables optimized to maximize farmer's expected utility. A decreasing absolute risk aversion - constant relative risk aversion (DARA-CRRA) utility function is used to examine crop management decision that can be influenced by changes in inter-temporal risk behavior. Comparison is made from management perspective - one is dynamic crop management strategy that varies each year; one is static (constant) strategy over 10 years. Based on the best crop management strategies, index insurance products are designed to help farmers further reduce production risk. The impact of geographical basis risk was assessed by comparing the risk reduction generated from index insurance contracts based on different weather stations; the impact of temporal basis risk is assessed by allowing separate contracts to be purchased for different sub-periods during the entire period.Irrigation, Planting Date, Risk Management, Weather Derivative Contract, Basis Risk, Agribusiness, Agricultural Finance, Crop Production/Industries, Farm Management, Financial Economics, Risk and Uncertainty,

Farm-Level Risk Management Using Irrigation and Weather Derivatives

An agronomic crop growth model—the Decision Support System for Agro-Technology Transfer—and a constant relative risk aversion utility function are used to examine corn irrigation strategies in Mitchell County, Georgia. Precipitation contracts are designed to help farmers manage risk. Three conclusions originate from the findings. First, the optimal irrigation strategy can greatly increase producers’ certainty-equivalent revenue. Second, changes in water pricing policy would have a limited impact on the amount of water used. And third, across levels of risk preference, the precipitation contracts are not effective in increasing certainty-equivalent revenue or reducing cumulative water use.irrigation risk management, water pricing policy, weather derivative contract, Agribusiness, Environmental Economics and Policy, Farm Management, Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety, D8, G22, Q15, Q25,

Managing Crop Production Risk with Crop Index Insurance Products

Index crop insurance products can eliminate the asymmetric information problem inherent in farm-level multiple peril crop insurance. Purchasers of index insurance products are, however, exposed to basis risk. This study examines the feasibility of various index insurance products for corn farms in southern Georgia. Index insurance products considered are based on county yields, cooling degree days, and predicted yields from a crop simulation model.Risk and Uncertainty,

DECISION SUPPORT FOR FREEZE PROTECTION USING ARTIFICIAL NEURAL NETWORKS

Crop Production/Industries,

Evaluating the Efficiency of Crop Index Insurance Products

Index crop insurance products can eliminate the asymmetric information problem inherent in farm-level multiple peril crop insurance. Purchasers of index insurance products are, however, exposed to basis risk. This study evaluates the efficiency of various index insurance products to reduce farm yield loss for representative corn farms in southern Georgia. Index insurance products considered are based on county yields, cooling degree days, and predicted yields from a crop simulation model.Crop Production/Industries, Risk and Uncertainty,

Stress hídrico e a distribuição de características vegetativas e reprodutivas de um cultivar de feijão

Défices de água no solo podem afetar a localização e o padrão de produção de flores e vagens em diferentes ramos de uma planta de feijão. O objetivo deste trabalho foi o de compreender o efeito do stress hídrico na distribuição de flores e de vagens no tronco principal e nos ramos de plantas de feijão. O experimento foi conduzido em ambiente controlado. O Stress hídrico foi imposto a partir do fim do estágio vegetativo até a maturidade fisiológica e a umidade do solo foi medida por meio de sondas de nêutrons à cada duas semanas. A formação de flores em cada nó do ramo principal foi monitorada aos 44 dias após semeadura (DAP), na formação de vagens aos 55 DAP e a 65 DAP. Mediu-se o peso seco de ramos e folhas, bem como área foliar, no estádio de enchimento de grãos (55 DAP). O número total de flores alcançou os máximos de 32 e 44 flores por planta para os tratamentos com stress e irrigado, respectivamente. O número de flores em ramos decresceu de 50% no tratamento de stress, em relação ao controle. O pegamento de vagens foi também reduzido nos ramos dos nós mais baixos do tronco central. Sob falta d'água a área foliar diminuiu de 60.1% a 10.4% em ramos e tronco principal, respectivamente. As condições de stress hídrico neste experimento tiveram um efeito maior nos crescimento vegetativo e reprodutivo dos ramos, em comparação com o tronco principal, afetando a produção final.Soil water deficits may affect the location and pattern of flower and pod production on different stem axes of a bean plant. The objective of this study was to understand the effect of drought stress on the distribution of flowers and pods on the main stem and on branches of bean plants. The experiment was conducted in a shelter field facility. Water stress was imposed from the end of the vegetative stage to physiological maturity and soil water was measured with a neutron probe every two weeks. Formation of flowers at each node of the main stem was monitored at 44 days after planting (DAP) and formation of pods at 55DAP and 65 DAP. Dry weight of stems and leaves as well leaf area were measured during the middle of the pod filling stage (55DAP). The total number of flowers reached maxima of 32 and 44 flowers per plant for the drought and irrigated treatments, respectively. Number of flowers on branches decreased 50% in the stress treatment when compared to the control. Pod setting was also reduced on the branches of the lower nodes of the main stems. Under drought, the leaf area diminished by 60.1% and 10.4% on branches and main stem, respectively. The field drought conditions of this experiment had a greater effect on the vegetative and reproductive growth of branches as compared to the main stem affecting the final yield

Determinants of Irrigation Farmers\u27 Crop Choice and Acreage Allocation Decisions: Opportunities for Extension Service Delivery

A survey of Georgia irrigators focused on the determinants of farmers\u27 crop choice and crop acreage allocation decisions was conducted. The survey also addressed farmer interest in open-access information and decision support programs delivered by the University of Georgia via the Internet. Results indicate crop choice and acreage decisions are heavily influenced by rotational considerations, but such considerations are not viewed as strict constraints. Crop futures prices and expected input costs are also important factors. Farmers expressed considerable interest in accessing information relevant to their crop choice and acreage allocation decision on the Internet at a university-run Web site